Gambler’s Fallacy: Roulette Strategy

Posted: 16th May 2009 by Christian in My Life

roulette-wheelThree years ago, some friends of mine where having a discussion about Las Vegas in which I learned that each of these individuals, who I would consider generally above the grain in terms of intelligence, have fallen for the gambler's fallacy.  I have tried to talk them out of it, but only one is receptive to the discussion.  This is my most recent attempt to bring him back to common sense....

A bet is a wager that one or more events will occur given the possibility of varying outcomes.
The odds of the wager are based on the number of winning outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes. (A house edge is generally added on top of this.)
Every wager in a pure bet takes place in a closed universe where there are a finite number of winning results and a finite number of total possible outcomes.
Lets take a wager that you will flip a coin and get heads three times in a row.
There is one possible winning outcome: HHH
There are eight possible outcomes:
HHH,THH,THT,TTH,HTH,HTT,HHT,TTT
Therefore, the odds of winning are 1/8. If the bet was that you will get all heads OR all tails, then the odds change to 2/8, or 1/4.
The bet takes place in a closed universe where the outcomes are limited by what reality dictates and the winning outcomes are dependent on whatever the gamblers choose in advance. The odds are adjusted appropriately.

When the bet is that you will flip a heads in a single coin flip, a new universe is created to satisfy the conditions of that individual bet. You are no longer including the results of the previous flips or future flips, because what happened previously is not at play with the new conditions that are being set forth with the new bet...nor are the results of future flips important as to whether you win or not. If you get your heads, the wager taker is not going to come back and say "ok, now lets flip again to see if you win". The wager didn't include future events, nor does it include past events.
In this case, there is one possible winning outcome: H
There are two possible outcomes:
H,T
The odds of victory are 1/2.
This doesn't change based on what previous results were because the previous results are no longer a part of the bet. They are irrelevent.
If you were betting in the 3 heads universe, there are more outcomes and therefore more opportunities for loss. In the one head universe, there are only two outcomes that are physically possible and that is what you are betting on, nothing less, nothing more.

Indeed, if the previous results were 10 heads in a row, that is amazing! The odds of that are very highly against. However, in the one heads bet, the total number of possibilities that made the 10 heads in a row such a feat are not at play for you. You weren't betting the last 10 flips would be heads. Your universe is smaller. Your bet is limited to the outcome of one flip, not the combined possible outcomes of a larger universe you aren't participating in.
One doesn't affect the other. That's the important part. For the person that started at the begining trying to flip 10 in a row, the odds are enormous because the possible outcomes are enormous. The one coin flipper has a smaller universe because they didn't start when the 10
flipper did. What happened previously isn't relevant to them.
Now, substitute a coin flip for the 38 possible results in a roulette spin (American) the same holds true.  Don't confuse yourself based on past results.  Find a betting combination that maximizes your potential profit and stick with it.  Changing your bet willy nilly based on previous outcomes will make the casino love you!

NRSC Endorses Crist? Argh!

Posted: 12th May 2009 by Christian in Politics

rubiologo1I sent this sloppily penned email to the NRSC and to John Cornyn just now.  Total idiots.

You folks just don't get it, do you?
The Republican voters of Florida should decide who their nominee for the Senate should be.  Following that, the NRSC should work tirelessly for that person.  Getting involved in primary battles is not, and should not, be your role as an organization.  Work on electing the Republicans that the people nominate.  Stop trying to play kingmaker.
You are going to waste millions of dollars in a primary battle against Rubio that could be better spent on the general election.
And, you do realize that Crist supported the stimulus package that the vast majority of Republicans are against, don't you?  Is that who you want in the Senate?!
This is why the GOP is hopeless.
I'm supporting Rubio and you guys can just fade into irrelevance as a party with no ideas...other than those borrowed by the Democrats.
~Christian Hine
Fort Mill, SC
Conservative Independent, former Republican

Letter From Grandpa

Posted: 4th May 2009 by Christian in Political, Viral Email

Guess you heard that 68% of the youth vote went to Obama. My granddaughter called this morning to tell me she was one of them. I replied with this e-mail:

Dear Susan,

The election of Obama comes down to this. Your grandmother and I, your mother, and other productive, wage-earning tax payers will have their taxes increased and that means less income left over. Less income means we will have to cut back on basic purchases, gifts and handouts.

That includes firing the Hispanic lady who cleans our house twice a month. She just lost her job. We can't afford her anymore.

What is the economic effect of Obama's election on you personally?

Over the years, your grandmother and I have given you thousands of dollars in food, housing, cash, clothing, gifts, etc. By your vote, you have chosen another family over ours for help. So in the future, if you need assistance with your rent, money for gas, tires for your car, someone to bring you lunch, etc. ... call 202-456-1111 .

That's the telephone number for the Office of the President of the United States. I'm sure Mr. Obama will be happy to send a check from his personal or business accounts, as we have, or leave cash in an envelope taped to his front door for you, as we have.

It's like this. Those who vote for the President of the United States should consider what the impact of an election will be on the nation as a whole and not just be concerned with what they can get for themselves (welfare, stimulus checks, etc.). What Obama voters don't seem to realize is that the government's money comes from taxes collected from tax paying families. Raising taxes on productive people means they will have less money to spend on their families.

Congratulations on your choice. For future reference, you might attempt to add up all you've received from us, your mom, Mike's parents and others and compare it to what you expect to get over the next four years from Mr. Obama.

To congratulate Mr. Obama and to make sure you're on the list for handouts, write to:
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
Washington , DC 20500

Love you Susan, but call the number listed above when you need help.

Grandpa

Becoming Illegal

Posted: 4th May 2009 by Christian in Political, Viral Email
The United States/Mexican border explained
The United States/Mexican border explained
On Becoming Illegal. You'll love this!
FORMS ARE GOING FAST- SIGN UP TODAY!
Becoming Illegal (Actual letter from an Iowa resident and sent to his senator)
The Honorable Tom Harkin
731 Hart Senate Office Building
Phone (202) 224 3254
Washington DC , 20510
 
Dear Senator Harkin,
As a native Iowan and excellent customer of the Internal Revenue Service, I am 
writing to ask for your assistance. I have contacted the Department of Homeland 
Security in an effort to determine the process for becoming an illegal alien and 
they referred me to you.
My primary reason for wishing to change my status from U.S. Citizen to illegal 
alien stems from the bill which was recently passed by the Senate and for which 
you voted. If my understanding of this bill's provisions is accurate, as an 
illegal alien who has been in the United States for five years, all I need to do 
to become a citizen is to pay a $2,000 fine and income taxes for three of the 
last five years. I know a good deal when I see one and I am anxious to get the 
process started before everyone figures it out.
Simply put, those of us who have been here legally have had to pay taxes every 
year so I'm excited about the prospect of avoiding two years of taxes in return 
for paying a $2,000 fine. Is there any way that I can apply to be illegal 
retroactively? This would yield an excellent result for me and my family because 
we paid heavy taxes in 2004 and 2005.
Additionally, as an illegal alien I could begin using the local emergency room 
as my primary health care provider. Once I have stopped paying premiums for 
medical insurance, my accountant figures I could save almost $10,000 a year.
Another benefit in gaining illegal status would be that my daughter would 
receive preferential treatment relative to her law school applications, as well 
as 'in-state' tuition rates for many colleges throughout the United States for 
my son.
Lastly, I understand that illegal status would relieve me of the burden of 
renewing my driver's license and making those burdensome car insurance premiums. 
This is very important to me given that I still have college age children 
driving my car.
If you would provide me with an outline of the process to become illegal 
(retroactively if possible) and copies of the necessary forms, I would be most 
appreciative. Thank you for your assistance.
Your Loyal Constituent,
Donald Ruppert
Burlington , IA

Thoughts on Speech

Posted: 1st May 2009 by Christian in Politics, Random Thoughts

group-just-meOur thoughts are what make us individuals, the smallest minority most in need of protection from the law. If you take our speech, you deny us the expression of our thoughts, and we have become slaves to your system.

~Written as a response to learning how some countries are attempting to ban language critical of certain politically correct lifestyles.

This will make you go Bananas!!‏

Posted: 1st May 2009 by Christian in Informative, Viral Email

A professor at CCNY for a physiological psych class told his class about bananas. He said the expression "going bananas" is from the effects of bananas on the brain. Read on:

 

Never put your banana in the refrigerator!!!

This is interesting.

After reading this, you'll never look at a banana in the same way again.

 banana

Bananas contain three natural sugars - sucrose, fructose and glucose combined with fiber. A banana gives an instant, sustained and substantial boost of energy.

Research has proven that just two bananas provide enough energy for a strenuous 90-minute workout. No wonder the banana is the number one fruit with the world's leading athletes.

But energy isn't the only way a banana can help us keep fit. It can also help overcome or prevent a substantial number of illnesses and conditions, making it a must to add to our daily diet.

 bananagrump

Depression:

According to a recent survey undertaken by MIND amongst people suffering from depression, many felt much better after eating a banana. This is because bananas contain tryptophan, a type of protein that the body converts into serotonin, known to make you relax, improve your mood and generally make you feel happier.

PMS:

Forget the pills - eat a banana. The vitamin B6 it contains regulates blood glucose levels, which can affect your mood.

Anemia :

High in iron, bananas can stimulate the pro duction of hemoglobin in the blood and so helps in cases of anemia.

Blood Pressure:

This unique tropical fruit is extremely high in potassium yet low in salt, making it perfect to beat blood pressure. So much so, the US Food and Drug Administration has just allowed the banana industry to make official claims for the fruit's ability to reduce the risk of blood pressure and stroke.

 

Brain Power: 200 students at a Twickenham (Middlesex) school (England) were helped through their exams this year by eating bananas at breakfast, break, and lunch in a bid to boost their brain power. Research has shown that the potassium-packed fruit can assist learning by making pupils more alert.

Constipation: High in fiber, including bananas in the diet can help restore normal bowel action, helping to overcome the problem without resorting to laxatives.

Hangovers: One of the quickest ways of curing a hangover is to make a banana milkshake, sweetened with honey.. The banana calms the stomach and, with the help of the honey, builds up depleted blood sugar levels, while the milk soothes and re-hydrates your system.

 

Heartburn: Bananas have a natural antacid effect in the body, so if you suffer from heartburn, try eating a banana for soothing relief.

 

Morning Sickness: Snacking on bananas between meals helps to keep blood sugar levels up and avoid morning sickness.

Mosquito bites: Before reaching for the insect bite cream, try rubbing the affected area with the inside of a banana skin. Many people find it amazingly successful at reducing swelling and irritation.

Nerves: Bananas are high in B vitamins that help calm the nervous system.

 

 chocolatebanana

 

Overweight and at work? Studies at the Institute of Psychology in Austria found pressure at work leads to gorging on comfort food like chocolate and chips. Looking at 5,000 hospital patients, researchers found the most obese were more likely to be in high-pressure jobs. The report concluded that, to avoid panic-induced food cravings, we need to control our blood sugar levels by snacking on high carbohydrate foods every two hours to keep levels steady.

Ulcers: The banana is used as the dietary food against intestinal disorders because of its soft texture and smoothness. It is the only raw fruit that can be eaten without distress in over-chronicler cases. It also neutralizes over-acidity and reduces irritation by coating the lining of the stomach.

Temperature control: Many other cultures see bananas as a "cooling" fruit that can lower both the physical and emotional temperature of expectant mothers. In Thailand , for example, pregnant women eat bananas to ensure their baby is born with a cool temperature.

 

Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD): Bananas can help SAD sufferers because they contain the natural mood Enhancer tryptophan.

Smoking &Tobacco Use: Bananas can also help people trying to give up smoking. The B6, B12 they contain, as well as the potassium and magnesium found in them, help the body recover from the effects of nicotine withdrawal.

Stress: Potassium is a vital mineral, which helps normalize the heartbeat, sends oxygen to the brain and regulates your body's water balance. When we are stressed, our metabolic rate rises, thereby reducing our potassium levels. These can be rebalanced with the help of a high-potassium banana snack.

Strokes: According to research in The New England Journal of Medicine, eating bananas as part of a regular diet can cut the risk of death by strokes by as much as 40%!

Warts: Those keen on natural alternatives swear that if you want to kill off a wart, take a piece of banana skin and place it on the wart, with the yellow side out. Carefully hold the skin in place with a plaster or surgical tape!

  plainbanana

So, a banana really is a natural remedy for many ills. When you compare it to an apple, it has four times the protein, twice the carbohydrate, three times the phosphorus, five times the vitamin A and iron, and twice the other vitamins and minerals. It is also rich in potassium and is one of the best value foods around So maybe its time to change that well-known phrase so that we say, "A banana a day keeps the doctor away!"

PASS IT ON TO YOUR FRIENDS

PS: Bananas must be the reason monkeys are so happy all the time!  

I will add one here; want a quick shine on our shoes?? Take the INSIDE of the banana skin, and rub directly on the shoe...polish with dry cloth. Amazing fruit!!!

 

Free Tickets

Posted: 1st May 2009 by Christian in Political, Viral Email

I have 4 extra tickets for the Robbie Knievel (son of Evel Knievel)event at the Philips Arena in Atlanta if anybody wants them.
He's going to try to jump 1000 Obama supporters with a bulldozer.

It should be a good time.

The Crosswalk

Posted: 1st May 2009 by Christian in Uplifting or Cute, Viral Email

Awesome!! We complain about the cross we bear but don't realize it is preparing us for the dip in the road that God can see and we cannot.

Whatever your cross,
whatever your pain,
there will always be sunshine, after the rain....
Perhaps you may stumble, perhaps even fall;
But God's always ready, to answer your call....
He knows every heartache, sees every tear,
a word from His lips, can calm every fear...
Your sorrows may linger, throughout the night,
But suddenly vanish, by dawn's early light...
The Savior is waiting, somewhere above,
to give you His grace, and send you His love.

May God fill your day with blessings!!

Be kinder than necessary, for everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle!

$50.00 Lesson

Posted: 1st May 2009 by Christian in Political, Viral Email

I recently asked my friend's little girl what she wanted to be when she
grows up. She said she wanted to be President some day. Both of her parents, liberal Democrats, were standing there, so I asked her, 'If you were President what would be the first thing you would do? '

She replied, 'I'd give food and houses to all the homeless people.'

Her parents beamed.

'Wow...what a worthy goal', I told her.  'But you don't have to wait until
you're President to do that. You can come over to my house and mow the lawn, pull weeds, and sweep my yard, and I'll pay you $50.

Then I'll take you over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs
out, and you can give him the $50 to use toward food and a new house.'

She thought that over for a few seconds, then she looked me straight in the
eye and asked, 'Why doesn't the homeless guy come over and do the work, and you can just pay him the $50?'

I said, 'Welcome to the Republican Party'.
Her parents still aren't speaking to me.

Simplicity At It’s Best – Economic Fix

Posted: 1st May 2009 by Christian in Political, Viral Email

SIMPLICITY AT IT'S BEST

This is from an article in the St. Petersburg Times
Newspaper on Sunday.

The Business Section asked readers for ideas on "How Would You Fix the Economy?"

I think this guy nailed it!

Dear Mr. President,

Please find below my suggestion for fixing America 's economy. 

 Instead of giving billions of dollars to companies that will squander the
money
on lavish parties and unearned bonuses, use the following
plan.  You can
call it the Patriotic Retirement Plan:

There are about 40 million people over 50 in the work force.  - Pay
them
$1 million apiece severance for early retirement with the
following
stipulations:

1) They MUST retire.  Forty million job openings - Unemployment fixed.

2) They MUST buy a new American CAR.  Forty million cars ordered - Auto
Industry fixed.

3) They MUST either buy a house or pay off their mortgage - Housing
Crisis fixed.

It can't get any easier than that!

P.S. If more money is needed, have all members in
Congress and the the President's Cabinet actually
pay their
taxes...

If you think this would work, please forward to
everyone you know.  If
not, please disregard.